Santos to win with VP dream ticket
Colombian President Santos’ VP is a dream ticket that puts him on course for victory in May`s presidential election.
Charismatic German Vargas Lleras will outshine Santos over the coming years, and I suspect will act as a de facto “joint president” doing away with the tradition of a largely ceremonial second in command.
Vargas is the answer to Santos’ poor polling numbers, and as one of Colombia`s most popular politicians (and a shoe-in were he himself to run for president), has been chosen to win over the two thirds of voters currently against the Santos re-election.
Despite knowing he could beat his boss, Vargas has a pact not to stand against Santos. In return he will be given far-reaching powers and will receive the nod in 2018.
One of the very few ministers in the four years of the Santos’ administration with any real successes to point to, Vargas is a fixer, able to work congress and the media with ease. In contrast to Santos, he is a fluent and forceful speaker; something of a good old-fashioned political operator.
Like Santos, Vargas Lleras was born into political power, the grandson of president Carlos Lleras Restrepo. Both men are from Liberal Party families and are cut from the same upper class Bogotano cloth. This is unquestionably the most elitist and traditional ticket in recent history.
Now, Vargas does not share Santos’ view of peace talks with the FARC. He was a fierce opponent of former president Andres Pastrana`s Caguan talks with the FARC that ended in 2002; and although publicly silent on the Havana talks, Vargas is a well-known sceptic. Some attribute this to the two attempts on his life it is expected were made by guerrillas groups.
As vice president, Vargas is expected to be given greater autonomy than previous holders of the post. Normally the VP is a position that comes with very little authority, less power and even fewer things to do. Incumbent Angelino Garzon has spent the last four years complaining of his isolation and irrelevance. Vargas however is rumoured to be in line to lead the delivery of the flagship infrastructure policies at the heart of the Santos second term.
Whatever role Vargas ends up taking on, he will want to be first in line to receive the credit for new projects and investment. A highly visible VP dishing out money to the regions and making governors, mayors and councillors’ pet projects a reality, is a sure-fire way of securing victory in the presidential elections in 2018.
If he has to wait until 2018, that is. Rumours are growing that Santos is set to deliver major constitutional change, using the peace agreement with the FARC as a catalyst for far-reaching reforms of the nation’s institutions in whom trust is at an all time low.
The president is said to favour removing the article that permits a commander in chief’s re-election, instead lengthening the presidential term to a one-off 6 year period. Under this scenario, Santos could step aside in 2016 (having secured peace with the FARC) and hand over the baton to Mr Vargas.
Constitutional change and political reform are set to form a major part of the legislative agenda in the first years of the Santos administration. There is little evidence however that voters are keen on this programme. Education, health, law and order and corruption top the list of concerns for the average Colombian.
Santos has chosen a vice president that is likely to be more popular than him. The price Santos will pay for getting Vargas to agree not to run against him is not yet known. But expect Vargas to be less a vice president and instead a joint president.
And with Vargas’ votes, Santos’ opponents look all but dead in the water.
Read our biography of Vargas Lleras