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Polls have given Democrats a favorable shot at winning back control of the U.S. House and possibly the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, but research and recent polling suggest the electorate is increasingly motivated by opposition to the other party rather than positive attachment to its own. That dynamic — often called affective polarization — is especially pronounced among independents and so may determine which party emerges with a practical majority: the one voters dislike less.
Opposition outweighs positive support, Pew finds
Analysis of recent polling by Pew Research, reported by Steven Shepard, shows that partisans commonly point to both positive views of their own party and negative views of the other. While 72 percent of Republicans and 67 percent of Democrats say they support their selected party because they believe its policies are good for the country, slightly larger shares — 73 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of Democrats — say the opposing party’s policies are harmful.
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Shepard also noted an important contrast for nonpartisan voters: “But many Americans don’t consider themselves Republicans or Democrats,” he wrote, adding that independents who lean toward one party are often driven more by opposition to the other party’s policies than by enthusiasm for their preferred party.
Independents are growing and motivated by dislike
The growing share of voters who identify as independents amplifies the political significance of that hostility. Gallup polling summarized by Jeffrey M. Jones found that a record-high 45 percent of U.S. adults identified as political independents in 2025, while equal shares — 27 percent each — identified as Democrats or Republicans.
Among those who lean toward a party, majorities report that a central reason for that lean is that the other party’s policies are harmful: 56 percent of Republican leaners and 64 percent of Democratic leaners said this was a major reason they lean that way. Far fewer cited the perceived good of their preferred party’s policies as a major motive (34 percent of Republican leaners and 27 percent of Democratic leaners), according to the Pew reporting Shepard summarized.
Because independents now make up a large and growing slice of the electorate, their choices — often framed in negative terms — can decide close races. That means elections are increasingly contests of rejection as much as endorsement: candidates who can mobilize dislike of the opponent may have an edge.
The longer trend: affective polarization and its consequences
Scholars have described the shift away from issue-only polarization toward a politics of mutual animosity. A 2019 paper in the Annual Review of Political Science argued that “Ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust those from the other party,” noting that both Democrats and Republicans view the other side as hypocritical, selfish and closed-minded and are increasingly unwilling to socialize across party lines. The paper used the term affective polarization to describe that growing interparty animosity.
Observers have linked this hostility to wider social effects. Johns Hopkins University’s Daniel Schlozman and Colgate University’s Sam Rosenfeld, writing in 2019, described contemporary parties as driven less by positive affinity than by fear and loathing of the other side. Reporting in 2024 from The New York Times by Ronda Kaysen and Ethan Singer found that moving patterns reflect that divide: when Americans relocate, they often choose neighborhoods aligned with their party’s past performance in presidential elections.
Pew polling from May cited in the reporting found broad unfavorable views of both major parties — 58 percent of U.S. adults had an unfavorable view of the Republican Party and 59 percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party — and that 26 percent of the public held unfavorable views of both parties, a share higher than in prior years.
What it means for the midterms
Affective polarization alters campaign incentives. Because a sizable portion of the electorate is motivated by repulsion, negative messaging and demonization can be effective tools to sway the pivotal group of leaners and independents. As Syracuse University political scientist Johanna Dunaway warned last year, “We are, and have been for quite some time, at the point where the two opposing entities are systematically and intentionally undermining each other’s legitimacy.”
That dynamic suggests the party that wins control after the midterms will be, in practical terms, the one Americans hate a little less. Parties and candidates may claim a mandate after the results, but the available evidence indicates the victory will owe as much to rejection of the opposition as to affirmative support for the winners.
