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High gas prices are weighing on voters ahead of early November’s midterm elections, and analysts say pump costs are unlikely to ease significantly before Election Day. The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stands at $4.27, an increase of nearly $1.30 — about 43% — since the outbreak of the Iran war in February, according to AAA data cited by ABC News.
Why prices are staying elevated
Analysts told ABC News that fighting in the Middle East has damaged oil infrastructure and forced some companies to use more expensive shipping and routing options, pushing up crude and refined-fuel costs. They also pointed to the Russia-Ukraine war as a separate factor that has constrained fuel exports from Russia and compounded a global supply shortage.
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The Brent crude futures price, a benchmark for global oil trading, climbed above $112 a barrel on Thursday — a level last seen in May and, ABC News noted, roughly a 60% rise since the start of the Iran war. Prices rose earlier in the week after Iran and allied Houthi forces claimed attacks on energy infrastructure in the region.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it attacked four vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and accused them of navigating an “illegal route” and transferring oil between ships, according to a statement published by the semi-official Fars News Agency. The IRGC Navy also reported that three vessels struck naval mines in the strait on Wednesday night. Separately, Yemen-based Houthi militants have claimed recent strikes on Saudi targets, including the Shaybah oil field and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu.
Tracking firm Kpler told ABC News that crude exports from the region had improved in recent weeks, but Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, said higher transport costs and damage to refinery infrastructure have disrupted supplies of refined products used for motor gasoline. “If prices are going up in one place, the chances are they will pull up prices in another place,” Cinquegrana said.
What analysts expect before Election Day
With the midterms a matter of weeks away, several analysts told ABC News they expect gasoline to remain above the $4-per-gallon threshold into early November. “It’s weeks before the election and we’ve got a ramp up of what’s happening in the Middle East, as opposed to some type of calming and a sign energy prices are coming down,” Tom Seng, a professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University, told ABC News.
GasBuddy Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan posted on X that “Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms.” Other analysts said even a diplomatic de-escalation would not produce immediate relief at the pump because retailers will be selling through refined product purchased when oil prices were higher and some damaged infrastructure will take time to repair.
Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, noted that “gas prices usually fall at a slower pace than they rise,” because retailers tend to keep prices elevated while they work through higher-cost inventory. He told ABC News that “it’s usually a pretty slow downward trajectory for gas prices.”
Seasonal trends offer some offsetting pressure: demand typically eases in the fall as families return from summer travel and refineries begin switching to a less-expensive winter blend that faces fewer Environmental Protection Agency restrictions, Cinquegrana said. Still, several analysts concluded that a near-term supply shortage will likely keep average U.S. pump prices above $4 a gallon for the next couple of weeks.
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer and imports only a small share of its fuel from the Middle East, but oil and gasoline trade on a global market — so unrest abroad can raise prices for U.S. drivers as well, analysts told ABC News.
ABC News’ Nasser Atta, Othon Leyva and Desiree Adib contributed to this report.
