News

Colombian economy, a cause for concern?

Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos will be concerned by today´s International Monetary Fund (IMF) 0.4 growth rate downgrade, which now forecasts a  4.3 rise until end 2013.

The IMF´s report follows news that exports are also down, around 4%, but nevertheless expects Colombia to outperform the regional as a whole which will see growth between 3. 2 and 3.9% over the coming 15 months.

Colombia is not entirely shielded from the effects of the sclerotic world economy, but it has been protected by among other things record foreign investment and high commodity prices.

Santos has placed economic competence at the heart of his government and his re-election depends both on this and on the peace talks.

Over a million 800 thousand new jobs have been created during the Santos regime, inflation has been kept low, and despite an increase in state spending, a healthy approach to deficit management has been enshrined in the constitution – a measure designed to avoid a crisis similar to that endured in Europe and North America.

The new finance minister, Mauricio Cardenas is currently taking a tax reform bill through parliament, a piece of legislation he says is designed to address inequalities in the tax code and to reduce the burden on businesses, helping to stimulate a further estimated one million jobs.

Santos´government has also, through `Prosperity for all´ social programmes, helped to lift 1.2 million out of  poverty, the aim to take the figure below 40% of the population.

And in August, Santos promised that within two years – when his first term in office comes to an end – the rate of extreme poverty will be reduced to one digit.

Employment Minister Rafael Pardo has also sought to remove the informality of many Colombians´ employment, building on previous reforms that introduced favourable tax rates for new business incorporation.

Finally, the Santos regime has also placed free trade agreements at the heart of its foreign policy, working to kick-start the long-awaited Colombia – US FTA, and moving closer to finally signing a similar plan with the EU. Santos has been a globe-trotting president aiming to tie up agreements across the continents, not only to the north and in Europe, but also in Asia with China, Korea, and Japan all potential future trading partners.

Santos was given his first role in government by Cesar Gaviria (President 1990-94) the leader responsible for the famous ´apertura´or liberalisation of the Colombian economy, and is continuing the work of his old boss.

For now, although Santos will keep more than a watchful eye on the growth rate, he will hope that Colombia can weather the economic storm elsewhere and continue on its strong growth path.

What Santos will have to address if the economic future of Colombia is to be as bright as the wealth of natural and human resource means it should be, is the major lack of infrastructure provision. Santos has announced billions of investment to improve the road network, and has begun to talk of reintroducing a national rail network.

These improvements will make their mark, at the earliest, in Santos´second mandate, but most likely long after he has left power. His role in history will be judged as much on this issue as on his ability or otherwise to secure peace.

 

Santos has cancer

President Santos, photo, President´s Office

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos announced today he will undergo surgery on Wednesday to remove a cancerous tumor in his prostate.

Santos´ cancer is not aggressive and according to doctors he has a 98% chance of a complete recovery.

The president has agreed to publish the details of his illness and to provide the nation with continuous updates on the progress of the treatment.

This is in stark contrast to some other cancer suffering leaders in the region who have chosen either to disclose little or less information (while in power) or in the case of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, keep the nation in the dark.

Wednesday´s operation is not expected to affect progress of the peace talks scheduled in the coming days, and Santos hopes to be away from his desk for days rather than weeks.

Last year Chávez was widely ridiculed for his claim that the US government was behind a cancer epidemic in Latin American leaders. Chávez half joked that the CIA had invented a chemical to poison left-wing leaders in the continent.

While the conspiracy theories are pure fiction it is true that Santos joins a curiously long list of current and recent heads of states who have suffered or are suffering from the disease.

Over the last three years we have seen the following:

Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – thyroid cancer (although later tests suggested a false alarm).

Former Brazil President Lula de Silva – throat cancer

Brazil President Dilma Rousseff – lymph cancer

Former Paraguay President, Fernando Lugo – lymphoma

And of course Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, details of whose cancer have been kept from the public, but who is expect to have had a tumor removed from his pelvis.

All of these leaders are left wingers, with the exception of President Santos.

Santos announcement comes at a time when his support is climbing again in the polls and just a few days away from the start of the peace talks with the FARC. Approval of his government now lies at 64%, even following the relentless attacks from Alvaro Uribe, who, for a brief moment today suspended hostilities to wish his former Defence Minister well.

This website hopes for Santos´ speedy recovery.

Petro turns back the clock

The creaking Transmilenio, Bogotá´s answer to public transport

This website is dedicated to detailed commentary and analysis but will also start, as of today, providing news overviews, short pieces that quickly give a flavour of the stories making the political news here in Colombia.

Note:

Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro is changing the work patterns of government employees, imposing new shift patterns to try to help alleviate the traffic congestion the capital city suffers during peak hours.  Core hours will now be 9am to 7pm, instead of 7am to 5pm.

The move is designed to complement changes made earlier this summer to the Transmilenio´s (Bogotá mas transit system of guided buses) billing system which led to reduced ticket prices for off-peak travel.

Petro earlier put the proposals to a popular vote of the civil servants. Having announced this week that the yes vote was victorious, the mayor has signalled his desire to implement the change with immediate effect.

However, rumours suggest that there is general ´surprise´ and dismay at the outcome. The no vote is said to have been won by such a margin in Culture, Planning and Treasury departments that there are those that view the outcome with suspicion. According to La Silla Vacía, there are proposals afoot for a sit down protest against the plans.

This website has recently found little to support in Petro´s government. However, modern approaches to work patterns are something we can see merit in, and the benefits of the practice are evident in other countries.

The difficulty for Petro, however, is that Bogotá´s transport network is, at various points in the day, virtually sclerotic.

This is a problem that requires major investment and real political vision. But the mayor gives the impression of presiding over a government of tinkerers.

The solutions implemented during Petro´s close on nine months in office have been a step in the right direction where a giant leap has been required.

In other news, President Santos´ decision earlier this week to install former mayoral candidate Gina Parody as his adviser on issues relating to Bogotá has already started to bear fruit. The first meeting between Parody and Petro appears to have resolved a long running battle between the Leivano Palace and Santos´ Housing Minister, Germán Vargas Lleras over the provision of land for the government´s free housing programme.

Vargas is rolling out a nation-wide project that will deliver hundreds of thousands of new houses to the country´s poorest, but Bogotá, until the meeting held on Friday, was being threatened with being left out of the first phase of the scheme. Vargas has accused the Petro administration of dragging its heals, following its inability to identify suitable plots of land.

Bogotá is home to some of Colombia´s poorest, many displaced by the decades long conflict (caused both by the FARC and by right wing paramilitary groups), and the Petro government´s apparent lack of enthusiasm to work with Germán Vargas had begun to look like a perverse joke. It is now expected that as part of the programme around 4,400 new homes will be built across the city, with mor e to follow in future years.

Petro and Gina are off to a better start than we might have expected.