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| Transport - the Mayor's priority |
Gustavo Petro is a ruthless politician, or he is a useless one. The Mayor of Bogota faces heavy criticism today for his decision - only five months into his mandate - to demanded the mass resignation of his cabinet.
According to most commentators, the Petro administration is in crisis. These critics point to a string of high-profile departures (even before last night's political massacre) in particular to Antonio Navarro's (effectively his second in command) sudden exit three months in, and conclude that Petro is unable to run a government.
The public are equally sceptical of the way the mayor is governing Bogota, and disapproval ratings are running at 65%.
No one can deny it has been an unhappy start to the Petro regime. But this crisis today represents, for this website, an opportunity for Petro to regain the initiative. He may well not be the best administrator, but the decision to sack his cabinet is a political calculation, a bold move that might just work to re-position his government, and provide the impetus it needs to recapture the confidence of Bogota.
What is wrong with the Petro administration?
Petro is unpopular. Bogota is in chaos; this is the assertion heard as much in the posh cafes of Parque 93 as it is in the rough cantinas of the city's southern barrios. It is difficult to disagree with such a widely held view.
In fairness to Petro, Bogota was in trouble before he took hold of the reins. The Samuel Moreno administration (Petro's predecessor) was disastrous. It left a series of deep-seated problems that now require immediate attention. The difficulty for Petro is he is yet to provide the evidence that he is equipped to resolve these issues.
Take transport - the area of policy that needs the most urgent action. It is no exaggeration to say that Bogota's public transport network is at breaking point - major works are required, while others scheduled to have been completed years ago remain unfinished, underfunded and victims of the alleged corruption at the heart of the Moreno government. But, Petro's approach to mobility in the capital has failed to reassure.
Although Petro argues that the issue is the most important of his administration, Bogotanos still await a clear plan or solution to the problem. His contradictory announcements on whether a metro system will be built or whether the city needs a light-rail system have caused confusion, and leave the impression of uncertainty at the heart of the mayoralty.
It has not helped, either, that the new bus system designed to come into effect on 2 June failed to do so because of a walk out of technical staff supposedly in protest at Petro's penchant for ambivalence.
Petro's Development Plan for Bogota
The inability to make a decision is the most frequent criticism thrown at Petro. Last week, Petro pushed through his Bogota Development Plan, the programme of commitments and policies the administration will seek to deliver during the lifespan of the mandate.
This plan has been slammed, precisely because it represents a series of compromises, volte-faces, uncertainties and contradictions - there were over 600 amendments to the final text. The airwaves have been full of those who argue that the plan is incoherent, that its promises are near impossible to keep and will saddle the public purse with huge debts.
Even more damming is the claim that the plan omits many of the more eye-catching commitments Petro made during his election campaign. Will Petro deliver free water to the poorest, for example, will he build the colleges he promised on the campaign trail? What has made him change the focus of his mandate, where has this recent policy shift come from?
Petro argues that he has amended his policies to reflect the reality of the Bogota he inherited. But, it is the same Bogota whose streets Petro canvassed last year.
Petro - the politician brain
Perhaps the critics of Petro are too harsh, however. In order to get his plan through Bogota's council it was inevitable that he would have to accommodate changes to his proposals. The majority of councillors are opposition members - and many of them will be viscerally opposed to Petro's left-wing politics.
Politics is the art of the possible, and Petro is playing the game. In an earlier post, I argued that in order to win the mayoral elections last year, Petro had decided to move to the centre, and to appear a more pragmatic politician. Had he not done so, he would have been unable to win over the middle classes, frightened of his polemical views.
The same pragmatic Petro can be seen behind the decision to sack his cabinet. Petro understands that public opinion is not with him at the moment, that his administration has started off badly, and that it is failing to deliver on the fine rhetoric. What better way of making a major statement than to sack the people charged with this delivery? Sure it's bold, and it could give the impression of a sinking ship - at least in the short term. But it offers Petro a clean slate, an opportunity to regain the initiative, and set about achieving the goals the plan sets in place.
The most important move will be who Petro chooses to put in place in his new cabinet. Petro knows that if he is to keep the council on his side, which he must do if he is to secure the funding agreements for his projects, he must build a coalition. He cannot continue to govern solely with the friends he had placed in his old cabinet.
Given this, Petro appears likely to reach out and bring to the table members of the opposition, from the U Party and from Cambio Radical. A year ago when the campaign for Bogota mayor was getting under way, it would have been impossible to imagine Petro - who was still viewed as a left-wing firebrand, an anti-establishment figure - working with the right wing parties of the Santos administration.
Petro's administrative qualities have been questioned, but his politics are adroit. There is no precedent for the sacking of the cabinet immediately after agreeing the development plan. It is expected that the mayor sticks with the secretaries that drew up the document.
But Petro likes the unexpected, and Petro administration that brings together those on the right and the left would offer an echo of perhaps the arch-pragmatist in Colombian politics - President Juan Manuel Santos.
Petro's poor start to his time in office could yet lead to a successful mayoralty. No one doubts Petro's ability to appeal through wise words, but he has failed so far to deliver. He must choose a new cabinet that is competent enough to do this dirty work for him.
"What has made him change the focus of his mandate..." The real world?
ReplyDelete"He may well not be the best administrator" Which is why he's not a good mayor. He may play the politics well, even in the future, but I doubt anybody expects as much progress as Mockus or Peñalosa achieved.
Colin, I'm tempted to agree almost entirely with you!
ReplyDeleteSadly, I think that Petro's policies are even now still some way from reflecting the requirements of the real world.
Exactly, Petro has always been an opposition politician and his lack of experience in actually running an administration is arguably in evidence in this latest crisis.
In an earlier article I argued that a return of Penalosa was the best option. Shame the electorate of Bogota didn't agree.
Thanks for your comments.